Thursday, April 16, 2009

The Real Price Of Oil

This is the real, or inflation-adjusted, price of petroleum as compliled by Credit Suisse - First Boston, and lifted from Carpe Diem.

I think it shows that the recession was caused by high oil prices. I don't think it impacts the idea that oil is running out, which I happen to believe it is. The only question is when. 

My point is that peak-oil, the date of the earth's maximium petroleum production, has probably already past. 

At right is a graph from a peak oil advocate. Note the source is Wikipedia, which is not the most believable. 

The idea is that the recession caused oil consumption to decline. Will oil production ever be that high again?

The oil economists argue that non-conventional oil will replace conventional oil, and we will continue to have more fossil fuel, and yet conventional oil will decrease.  This is fairly persuasive. The industry has steadily defined non-conventional sources as more and more conventional.