Could This be a Manufacturing Led Recovery?

Manufacturing increased last month by 3.3 points and surprised everyone. Most surprising is that EXPORTS are actually doing well. This might mean the foreign economy is doing better than the US economy, but I choose to believe that the low dollar is finally affecting the real economy. Imports are too expensive and it is easier to sell US stuff overseas.

Recoveries are almost always led by the housing sector as folks build new houses with low interest loans, but NOT this time.  This time the housing sector is sick, sick, sick, and I've been wondering what would happen. It looks like the world is buying what America is selling.

Below is the institute of Supply Management Index. This is not real data; it is a poll of the purchasing agents who belong to the society. Pretty optimistic stuff. 

MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE JANUARY 2010
Index	Series Index January	Series Index December	Percentage Point Change	Direction	Rate of Change	Trend* (Months)
PMI	58.4	54.9	+3.5	Growing	Faster	6
New Orders	65.9	64.8	+1.1	Growing	Faster	7
Production	66.2	59.7	+6.5	Growing	Faster	8
Employment	53.3	50.2	+3.1	Growing	Faster	2
Supplier Deliveries	60.1	56.8	+3.3	Slowing	Faster	8
Inventories	46.5	43.0	+3.5	Contracting	Slower	45
Customers' Inventories	32.0	35.0	-3.0	Too Low	Faster	10
Prices	70.0	61.5	+8.5	Increasing	Faster	7
Backlog of Orders	56.0	50.0	+6.0	Growing	From Unchanged	1
Exports	58.5	54.5	+4.0	Growing	Faster	7
Imports	56.5	55.0	+1.5	Growing	Faster	5
OVERALL ECONOMY				Growing	Faster	9
Manufacturing Sector				Growing	Faster	6

Let's hope this is not too good to be true.
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