Every Previous Theory is Wrong!!

This giant wooden elephant is not a scientific theory,
but it is pretty cool. 

"Every previous theory of science was proved wrong, so its just a matter of time until current theories are proved wrong."

Is that a great bit of babbling? The first time I heard it, it really slowed me down. Unless a theory is disproven and replaced, it is not a "previous theory."

Some pretty sound "previous theories" like Newton's Gravity, still work pretty well, although they known not to be actually true.

Ptolemy's theory of the solar system predicts the motion of the planets pretty well, but it has the theory completely wrong.

Each new theory of science is zeroing in on the truth, and is not a random shot in the dark.

Also some theories have impressive antiquity for example, the Atomic Theory for example, has been around for a hundred years in its current form, and two millennia in general principle.

The Theory of Gravity has been around since 1666, and even though quantum gravity and General Relativity might push it aside, high school kids are still learning it.

Anti-Science Cholesterol Deniers Deserve to Die!

I gotta say that I am tired of science deniers: evolution, global warming, and now cholesterol. Why are people so skeptical of sensible topics and forget skepticism when they need it: astrology, homeopathy, herbal medicine, and the Laufer Curve?

The notion that cholesterol does not cause heart disease got me started.

Look at the graph at the right. See how a small increase in cholesterol from 199 to 240 increases the risk of heart disease by 80%.  If you were an actuary, I'd be able to prove that to you.

There is plenty of data -- if data mattered to people. A Lancet meta-study from 2007 that summarized 61 studies involving 900,000 people!!

This showed that middle aged adults were TWICE as likely to have a heart attack with high cholesterol. As you get older, the effect of cholesterol is a little less, only 1 in 3.  High cholesterol also increases the chances of stroke.

I think juicy steak corrupts people's minds. If you disagree, try the Flat Earth Society.

Go Adam Beane! What an Obama Head!

This Obama head looks like it can talk. Makes me think it is photoshopped. Actually it is from Adam Beane. What patience this guy must have!

Pascal Bruckner on Happiness

Pascal Bruckner on Happiness was on the podcast Philosophy Bites. One of my favorite podcasts.

This discussion takes humanity from a distant past where happiness was an un-important distraction to today's world where happiness is arguably a duty. Bruckner has a book called "The Duty to be Happy.  The idea is that people are obliged to be happy in order to feel good about themselves.

It is interesting the capitalism started as a frugal ideology as people saved to produce things, but now it is a happiness oriented ideology with an aesthetic to consume things.

Also interesting are Bruckner's three kinds of happiness: a moment of grace and joy, the feeling our life is moving in the right direction, and a different quality of life from ordinary days.

See also my two happiness and artificial intelligence posts.

Americans and Money

 We all spend too much time trying to make money compared to what we would rather be doing.

Often I say that if people did not have to eat, then there would be many more poets and artists. Similarly I tell my kids to be practical about their job prospects.

Every year Parade Magazine runs an issue on What People Make, which is one of their most popular. I came across some census and polling data on income, and I thought I'd share it.

Data from the Census Dept 2010

The first graph shows two things, first  income for men  has been flat since 1974.  This is all in 2009 dollars -- meaning the effect of inflation has been erased.

This means all the GDP growth has not been going to individual guys. Of course there are more people now that before, but each individual is making the same amount.

Second women still make less than men. This is improving, but not that fast. 77% is surprisingly low.

I am not going to engage the sexual politics of income disparity between men and women. Way too complicated for today.

The above figure shows the average income in the USA in 2009 dollars. The average income is about $50,000. Middle class according to the census bureau goes from half that to 1.5 times that, or 25,000 to 75,000.

From Pew Research 2008

 One of the keys to the American Psyche is the American Dream, which is that anybody who works hard can become successful, for example become President.

This figure shows people assessment of how well their standard of living compares to their parent's.  See my previous post on this topic.

Upper income and middle income groups believe in the American dream. The lower income group is divided on whether the kids will have it better than their parents.

The housing price crash has certainly helped young people buy a house, and also degraded many older folks standard of living.

On the other hand, the rising cost of education is putting a higher and higher hurdle in front of high achievers from disadvantaged backgrounds.  Education is an important part of equality of opportunity.

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Cub Fans Low Testosterone Get Them Lower Auto Insurance!

Extra testosterone in the drivers blood after the ball game may
have lead to this crash. 

If we go to a ball game, and our team wins, we are more likely to die in the car going home, than if our team loses. Such is that evidence from Prof Melayne McInnes at U of North Carolina.

She looked at accident statistics when the home team won compared to when the home team lost. She looked at 271 games. Alcohol is a factor in post game accidents, but this effect was not due to drinking.

This is pretty quick and easy study. Just look up some sports scores, look up some traffic statistics, and then a little multiple regression.  What an easy way to get a thesis done!

The theory goes that winning increases testosterone in fans which increases aggressiveness when driving which leads to accidents.  Losing teams fans decrease in testosterone and that leads to submissiveness and safer driving. The study supports the theory.

The insurance industry owes
a refund to Cub fans.

On the other hand, real data with solid serum testosterone levels are far less clear. The idea that testosterone increases aggression is mostly anecdotal. There is one real study showing the opposite effect -- athletes with LOW testosterone get  MORE injuries -- probably because testosterone builds up bulkier muscles that are more resistant to injury. There is one study using blood testosterone levels that observed only weak insignificant effects on aggression.

High testosterone levels would be expected to increase sexual interest in men, but the data are conflicted showing both yes and no.

The bright side is that the Cubs are probably keeping my auto insurance down.  Also the  Lions.

Is There Any Point to Gatorade?

There are eight kinds of Gatorade  -- several of which are
in test marketing. 

About two months ago, I got sick while exercising, and the doctor said I should pay attention to my electrolytes. Prior to this, I just tried to stay hydrated, but never paid attention to electrolytes.  I thought that would wash out the excess sodium from all the over-salted food I eat.  Of course all that water also washes out other minerals like potassium and calcium which are important to muscle function.

I bought myself some salty Gatorade -- it was G Series PRO 2 Perform.  Isn't that a ridiculously complicated name for salty Kool-Aid?  There are eight kinds of Gatorade now, but most are not available in the Detroit metro -- looks like test marketing or perhaps Southern US specific marketing.

Yesterday, I made point of drinking about 20 ounces for about 130 calories and an unknown amount of electrolytes over my two hour workout today. I thought I felt better. So was that real or imagined?

Turns out this is a thoroughly studied question, and not only at the Gatorade Sports Science Institute or whatever. Jason Winnick et al gave twenty athletes either 6% sugar water or placebo. The ones with the sugar water ran faster, jumped higher and had a better mood than the placebo of flavored water.  This study says sports drinks work.

My question is whether six Jolly Rancher candy would have the same effect as the Gatorade.  Is it the sugar or is it the salt?

The National Trainers Association and NIH are more concerned with preventing dehydration that getting peak performance. 1-2% weight loss due to dehydration will cause loss of performance, and 3% will cause muscle cramps. So for me, 2% weight loss is about 3 pounds -- which is a lot, but it probably happens on humid summer days.  The trainers recommend drinking about one liter every hour, and measuring dehydration by the color of the urine -- they have a color scale prepared, or better by measuring urine density if you have a densitometer handy.

In 1992, a study recommended sugar water before and during exercise at about 50% of the volume that one sweated out. In 1998 a Gatoraid sponsored study showed that 12 year boys drank more fluid if it had sugar in it, but there was not performance advantage.

In summary, salty sugar water helps performance and mood, so it seems to be worthwhile. I suppose I'll try it again.
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Renewable Energy Geography

Here in suburban Detroit, especially Downriver, we have an inferiority complex. We sometimes believe life is better in other places, and sometimes friends/relatives tell us so.

One thing that is better other places  are natural resources, for example Texas and Alaska have oil, but not here.

Florida and California have tropical fruit plantations, but not here.

The coasts have winds to turn turbines, but not here. Or is it.

It turns out that there are some decent winds in side the Great Lakes, and the mountain passes of the West are great too.

Wind seems to be the most practical in terms of land usage since it produces considerable power, and the land can generally be used for something in addition.

Link to source

Solar power depends on the average cloudiness as well as the brightness of the sun. It helps to live in the desert. The plains states do OK though.

This map is at odds with the Energy Department calculation of energy yield from semiconductor photovoltaics shown below, where cloudiness seems far more important than the brightness of the sun.

In this table Boulder Colorado is the best.

How much energy will a grid-connected photovoltaic system produce?*
System Size	1-kW	2-kW	3-kW	4-kW	5-kW
Seattle, WA	970	1940	2910	3880	4850
Sacramento, CA	1399	2799	4198	5597	6996
Boulder, CO	1459	2917	4376	5834	7293
Minneapolis, MN	1286	2571	3857	5142	6428
Des Moines, IA	1292	2584	3876	5168	6459
Houston, TX	1220	2440	3660	4879	6099
Pittsburgh, PA	1099	2197	3296	4395	5494
Jacksonville, FL	1286	2571	3857	5142	6428
*Estimated annual output in kWh/year (source: PV WATTS). A typical home uses an average of 9,400 kWh per year.   National Sustainable Agriculture Information Service

http://www.afdc.energy.gov/afdc/data/images/biomass_map.jpg

Michigan does better with biomass, which in this context means wood for fuel. Wood and burnable grasses have a lot to do with rainfall.

This map shows where petroleum is produced today -- obviously Texas and Alaska stand out.   Coal and natural gas are on this site. 













Having said all this, alternative energy develop is not going to happen until petroleum and natural gas prices climb enough to make these energy sources relatively cheap. Sometimes governments give subsidies, but experience shows that subsidies only last until the party of government changes.

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Anorexia

I read this comic about a girl with anorexia, and then I found this unforgettable image.

I don't know the source of the image; I hope whoever it was got better.

The World Biggest Burger Again >>> From Southgate Michigan

Here you see the World's Biggest Burger at 184 pounds of beef and 319 lb of edibleness. This is the third world-record burger made at Southgate's own Mallie's bar, which is just up the road from my humble abode.

You probably don't recall my post on their last burger from 2009.

Here is the video. It captures the excitement, but its hard to see.



Just $2000 to get your own.